Hello everyone, I’m Gygaxian and this is my personal ratings diary for the Utah legislature. In three or four parts, I will be covering my personal race ratings for the Utah legislature for the 2018 elections. I will be covering all the seats, even including Safe R and Safe D races, for the sake of completeness. Because Utah was unique in 2016 for having a strong third party candidate in Evan McMullin, I will also provide McMullin’s numbers in each seat.
Senate District 2 (open): This Salt Lake City-based seat, held by retiring Jim Dabakis (D), is the safest Democratic seat in the state, as it contains large ethnic and LGBT minority populations, along with many white liberals. The Democratic nominee is Salt Lake City Councilman Derek Kitchen, who is also the face behind the Kitchen v. Herbert marriage equality decision. The Republican candidate is Chase Winder. The presidential numbers are 69% Clinton, 15% Trump, 10% McMullin. Safe D.
Senate District 3: This Salt Lake City-based seat, held by Gene Davis (D) since 1998, has been radically changed through two censuses, and is currently fairly Democratic leaning. Gene Davis is a very strong incumbent, having been in the legislature since 1986, making the seat fairly easy to hold as long as Davis stays in office. The Republican nominee is Jeremy Egan. The presidential numbers are 56% Clinton, 23% Trump, 13% McMullin. Safe D.
Senate District 4: This Salt Lake City-based seat, held by Jani Iwamoto (D) since 2014, is pretty safe territory for us, and Iwamoto is a strong incumbent, representing the rough territory of this district on the Salt Lake County Council 2008-2012. Iwamoto has the distinction of being one of the few Asian-American members of the legislature. The Republican nominee is Alan Monsen. The presidential numbers are 53% Clinton, 25% Trump, 17% McMullin. Safe D.
Senate District 5: This West Valley-based seat, held by Karen Mayne (D) since 2008, is a working class district, unlike the previous Dem-held districts, and is more moderate. Mayne is a pretty strong incumbent, and can muster the support of the unions/working class voters, but there’s always the danger that a strong Republican could defeat her. However, the Republican nominee for the district, Kimdyl Allen, doesn’t appear to be strong at all, lacking even a campaign website/email. The presidential numbers are 41% Clinton, 32% Trump, 19% McMullin. Safe D.
Senate District 8 (appointee): This Milcreek-based seat, held by appointee Brian Zehnder (R) since January 2018, is a true tossup. It contains many of the light blue and light red suburbs neighboring Salt Lake City, and has voted for Democrats and Republicans in the past. The Democrat nominee is State School Board member Kathleen Riebe, whose school board district comprises much of SD-8, and who is reputed to be a good fundraiser. Zehnder is a moderate and likable candidate, but so is Riebe. The presidential numbers are 45% Clinton, 32% Trump, 17% McMullin. Tossup.
Senate District 9 (open): This Sandy-based seat, held by retiring Senate President Wayne Niederhauser (R) would provide an intriguing pickup opportunity… if the Democratic nominee Abbey Wright had not dropped out of the race due to family health reasons. This would be a Likely R seat otherwise, but with only Republican nominee Kirk Cullimore and United Utah Party candidate Alexander Castagno, this seat is an automatic loss for the Democrats. Of note is that Castagno is running on a center-left platform, and appears to be a de facto Democrat. The presidential numbers are 35% Clinton, 39% Trump, 19% McMullin. Safe R.
Senate District 11 (open): This Riverton/Draper/Bluffdale-based seat, held by retiring Senator Howard Stephenson, is a pretty boring district, being centered around deep red suburbs. The Republican nominee is State Representative Dan McCay (HD-41), and the Democratic nominee is 2006 UT-3 Dem nominee Christian Burridge. The presidential numbers are 22% Clinton, 48% Trump, 25% McMullin. Safe R.
Senate District 12: This Tooele/West Valley-based seat, held by Daniel Thatcher since 2010, is a mostly working class district, much like District 5 to the immediate east. Full of blue collar workers, and with union roots, the district seems to like Thatcher, who is an electrician by trade. The Democratic nominee is 2014 nominee Clare Collard, who is notably Scottish-born, and likely more progressive than this district would prefer. She received 41% last time and she’ll likely get a similar result this year. The presidential numbers are 31% Clinton, 40% Trump, 21% McMullin. Likely R.
Senate District 15 (open): This Orem-based district, held by retiring Senator Margaret Dayton, is part of the beating Republican heart of Utah County. Extremely Mormon and extremely conservative, this seat doesn’t even have a Democrat running. The Republican nominee is State Representative Keith Grover, with UUP nominee Lee Houghton and Independent American Tommy Williams as the only opposition. The presidential numbers are 17% Clinton, 47% Trump, 31% McMullin. Safe R.
Senate District 17 (open): This multi-county district in extreme northern Utah, held by retiring Senator Pete Knudson, is a fairly standard rural Utah district, heavily Mormon, conservative, etc. The Republican nominee is State Representative Scott Sandall (HD-1), and the Democratic nominee is Michael Keil. SD-17 has the lowest Clinton numbers in the state, so the outcome shouldn’t be surprising. The presidential numbers are 13% Clinton, 58% Trump, 23% McMullin. Safe R.
Senate District 18: This Weber County-based district contains all of swingy Ogden, as well as blood-red rural areas, and is held by former Weber State University president Ann Milner (R) since 2014. The Democratic candidate is engineer Jason Yu, a first generation Chinese-American. The presidential numbers are 29% Clinton, 45% Trump, 19% McMullin. Safe R.
Senate District 21: This Syracuse-based district in northern Utah is held by Jerry Stevenson. There isn’t much else to say about this blood-red rural district. The Democratic candidate is Jake Penrod. The presidential numbers are 19% Clinton, 48% Trump, 28% McMullin. Safe R.
Senate District 22: This Farmington-based district in northern Utah, held by Stuart Adams, is yet another blood red rural district, with the distinction of having no opposition to Adams whatsoever, in the primaries or general election, earning Adams a free ride to his next term. The presidential numbers are 20% Clinton, 45% Trump, 30% McMullin. Safe R.
Senate District 26 (open): This district is based around a large chunk of rural eastern Utah, and is held by retiring Senator Kevin Van Tassell. Surprisingly, both parties had primaries here, the Republican nominee being Ronald Winterton, and the Democratic nominee being Eileen Gallagher. The presidential numbers are 26% Clinton, 58% Trump, 12% McMullin. Safe R.
Senate District 28: This district is based around southwestern Utah, and is held by Evan Vickers. The Democratic nominee is Mark Chambers. This district has the distinction of giving Trump the highest presidential numbers, does not give Clinton the worst result in the state. The presidential numbers are 14% Clinton, 68% Trump, 11% McMullin. Safe R.
